Carnival Corp. (NYSE: CCL) reported Q4 EPS of $0.62, $0.11 better than the analyst estimate of $0.51. Revenue for the quarter came in at $4.8 billion versus the consensus estimate of $4.59 billion.
GUIDANCE:
Carnival Corp. sees FY2020 EPS of $4.30-$4.60, versus the consensus of $4.39.
The company is entering financial year 2020 with a record booked occupancy position. At this point, cumulative advanced bookings for the complete year 2020 are slightly before the prior year at prices that are slightly lower compared to 2019 on a comparable basis, which doesn't include internet revenue yields brand mix headwind of roughly 0.5 percent for the complete year 2020.
Booking volumes at the start of the fourth quarter were impacted by Hurricane Dorian. During the last eight weeks, booking volumes are running higher with prices that are in line for the complete year 2020 compared to 2019 on a comparable basis.
Based on current booking trends, the corporate expects full year 2020 constant currency net cruise revenues to be up approximately 5.0 percent, with capacity growth of 6.6 percent, and net revenue yields in constant currency expected to be down approximately 1.5 percent compared to the prior year. Net revenue yields for the complete year 2020 include a brand mix headwind of roughly 0.5 percent and a further headwind of roughly 0.5 percent, primarily thanks to ship delivery delays, including today's Mardi Gras announcement. the corporate expects full year net cruise costs excluding fuel per ALBD in constant currency to be in line compared to the prior year, which also includes an impression of over 0.5 percent caused by ship delivery delays and an accounting difference.
As previously indicated, in 2020 the corporate will increase its usage of Marine Gasoil ("MGO") as a percent of total fuel consumption as a results of the International Maritime Organization ("IMO") sulfur emission regulations. MGO is currently anticipated to represent 40 percent to 45 percent of fuel consumption for full year 2020 compared to 21 percent for full year 2019. The company's usage of Heavy heating oil ("HFO") is predicted to be 55 percent to 50 percent of fuel consumption for full year 2020 and every one other fuel types is predicted to be approximately 5.0 percent.
The impact of changes in fuel mix, fuel prices and currency exchange rates are expected to extend earnings by $0.17 to $0.24 per share compared to the prior year. Full year 2020 earnings are expected to incorporate $0.12 to $0.17 per share incremental impact from prior year events and previously announced voyage disruptions, including ship delivery delays. supported the above factors, the corporate expects full year 2020 adjusted earnings per share to be within the range of $4.30 to $4.60 compared to 2019 adjusted earnings per share of $4.40.
Donald added, "Despite the negative impacts from the tail effect of the high number of bizarre events in 2019, also as a continuation of the negative headwinds facing our Continental European source markets, our brands still perform and that we are at record booked occupancy levels for 2020 on peak capacity growth. Given the evolution of conditions in Continental Europe, and recognizing the timing of serious capacity increases we've in our European portfolio, we are taking variety of actions to adapt over time. Globally, we also are taking actions to further stimulate demand and increase our cost efficiencies in 2020 and beyond. With annual cash from operations of $5.5 billion, our record is robust as are our brands and that we believe we are well positioned to return to double-digit earnings growth and elevated ROIC over time."
First Quarter 2020 Outlook
First quarter constant currency net cruise revenues are expected to be up approximately 4.0 percent, with capacity growth of 6.0 percent, and net revenue yields in constant currency expected to be down 1.0 to 2.0 percent compared to the prior year. Net cruise costs excluding fuel per ALBD in constant currency for the primary quarter of 2020 are expected to be down 2.0 to 3.0 percent compared to the prior year, the bulk of which is driven by lower dry-dock days during the quarter.
MGO is currently anticipated to represent 40 percent to 45 percent of fuel consumption for the primary quarter 2020 compared to approximately 14 percent for the primary quarter 2019. The company's usage of HFO is predicted to be 55 percent to 50 percent of fuel consumption for half-moon 2020 and every one other fuel types is predicted to be approximately 5.0 percent.
The impact of changes in fuel mix, fuel prices and currency exchange rates are expected to extend earnings by approximately $0.01 per share compared to the prior year. supported the above factors, the corporate expects half-moon 2020 adjusted earnings per share to be within the range of $0.47 to $0.51 compared to 2019 adjusted earnings per share of $0.49.
(*Consensus sees Q1 EPS of $0.40)